By Jeff Dieffenbach

The U.S. currently sits in fourth position, tied with Mexico on points at 13 but trailing them by two in the first tie-breaker, goal differential.  The CONCACAF sends three representatives to the 2002 World Cup, and with Costa Rica already holding a stamped ticket, four teams are battling for two spots.

Although the U.S. is currently out of the picture, their final two matches are against the two weakest teams in the group (home against Jamaica and away against Trinidad & Tobago), making the U.S. prospects to qualify hardly "dim" as some pundits are now saying.

Mexico faces a challenge in their next game, playing at top ranked Costa Rica (19 points). Then, in the final qualifying match for both sides, Mexico hosts Honduras. Honduras sits in second place with 14 points, also holding a lead of two over the U.S. in goal differential. Given these remaining contests, consider the scenarios under which the U.S. overtakes Honduras and/or Mexico.

Assuming that Honduras wins its next game, against last place Trinidad & Tobago, everything centers on Mexico in the Mexico-at-Costa Rica and Honduras-at-Mexico matches. Including draws, these two matches combine for nine possible point standings. The Costa Rica match provides three main scenarios, each with several outcomes.

SCENARIO 1: a motivated Mexico prevails over already-in Costa Rica. (Outcomes 1 and 2) A Mexico win or draw in the final match against Honduras then forces the U.S. to win both its remaining games to clinch a spot outright.

A win and a draw by the U.S. in its final two games might be enough depending on goal differential, but remember, the U.S. trails both Mexico and Honduras by two in that all-important tie-breaker. (Outcome 3) A Mexico loss to Honduras allows a U.S. win and draw to clinch a spot. A sole U.S. win might also qualify based on goal differential.

SCENARIO 2: Mexico ties Costa Rica. (Outcome 4) A Mexico win against Honduras again requires the U.S. to win two to qualify. A win and draw forces the tie-breaker. (Outcomes 5 and 6) A Mexico draw or loss versus Honduras means that the U.S. needs only a single win. In the case of the Mexico loss, the U.S. might get in by tie-breaker with only a draw.

SCENARIO 3: Mexico loses to Costa Rica. (Outcome 7) A Mexico win over Honduras forces the U.S to win and draw. They go to a tie-breaker with a lone win. (Outcome 8) A Mexico draw against Honduras allows a single win from the U.S. to be enough, and only a draw to get to the tie-breaker. (Outcome 9) A Mexico loss to Honduras gets the U.S. in with a draw, and gets them a chance in the tiebreaker even with two losses.

In sum, two wins for the U.S. clinches a spot in for all nine outcomes. A win and a draw guarantees a top three finish for seven of the nine outcomes and gives them a tie-breaker chance in the eighth and ninth. A single win is enough in four of the nine outcomes, and possibly enough in a fifth. A lone draw is a passing grade in one of the nine outcomes and perhaps sufficient in a second and third. There is even hope with two losses, albeit only in a tie-breaker.

With reasonable play, which they haven't displayed in their last several matches, the U.S. should manage at least a win and a draw. Does the U.S. need to elevate its level of play? Clearly. Are its hopes dim? Hardly.