by Jeff Dieffenbach

The Wise Old Men of FIFA see fit to schedule group-ending matches concurrently to minimize shenanigans of various sorts. Teams that know that they are in might take it easier on their opponents to the passive detriment of others in the group, or more actively play to deny a group member whom they would prefer to avoid in later rounds.

Major League Soccer, on the other hand, has created just the opposite scenario. The final five matches of the season will be played out over a four day period.

Thursday night: Dallas at DC

Dallas has already clinched a playoff spot (they currently sit 5th), and the best that they can do is move themselves up a notch to 4th. Since 4th plays 5th, the incentive isn’t there. Rest and recuperation seem the better course.

DC, on the other hand, must win (and hope for a New England victory over the MetroStars and a loss by either Kansas City or Chicago) for a shot at post-season play. Batten down the hatches, here comes Marco Etcheverry.

Prediction: DC over Dallas

Friday night: Kansas City at Colorado

Colorado, like Dallas, has much less for which to. They can’t improve their playoff seeding and a drop from 4th to 5th has no downstream impact. Rest, recuperate.

Kansas City, like DC, needs a win, but could back in with losses (later in the weekend) by New England or Chicago. Thursday’s game means nothing—Kansas City owns the tie-breaker over DC. Preki and the Wizards will come out fighting.

Prediction: Kansas City over Colorado

Saturday night: New York/New Jersey at New England, Los Angeles at San Jose

Finally, a game with something at stake for both teams. New York/New Jersey leads the series 3-0, but will be at less than full strength. Scorer Clint Mathis and goalkeeper Tim Howard both saw red cards in the previous match. The MetroStars may be less motivated, however, if DC and KC both lose their matches—they’ll have clinched a spot already.

New England rides their hottest stretch in history (4-0-1) and has the benefit of playing at home. Perhaps most importantly, though, their fate in the event of a loss will depend on Sunday’s Columbus-Chicago match. With their playoff picture unclear, Taylor Twellman and the Revolution will play harder.

Prediction: New England over New York/New Jersey

Los Angeles and San Jose are fighting for the overall first seed (and home field advantage) in the playoffs. A fair reward to be sure, but certainly not the same motivation as elimination. A Galaxy win or tie gives the crown to Los Angeles, a loss and it goes to Ariel Graziani and San Jose.

Prediction: San Jose over Los Angeles

Sunday afternoon: Columbus at Chicago

Columbus is assured a playoff berth. A win or tie guarantees them the Eastern Conference crown, as does a loss in the event of a New England tie or loss. They’ll of course know this already. Motivation may be low.

A Chicago loss and home they go. Clear cut, end of story. The Fire will have no part of that.

Prediction: Chicago over Columbus

Playing out the string

How do the standings play out if all of the above (the “have-nots over the haves”) comes to pass?

1. San Jose: 51 points
2. New England: 38 points
3. Los Angeles: 51 points
4. Colorado: 42 points
5. Dallas: 40 points
6. Columbus: 38 points
7. Kansas City: 38 points
8. Chicago: 37 points
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9. New York/New Jersey: 35 points
10. DC: 35 points

Note the circular tie-breaker oddity that New England is better than Columbus, Columbus is better than Kansas City, and Kansas City is better than New England  (except for the fact that the best record in the Eastern Conference guarantees a top 2 seed).

Getting back to the original question, who is hurt most by the staggered ending to the season, and who is helped?

Kansas City and New England are both in a way hurt. Were they each to play the Sunday game, they would know their needed result. Conversely, New York and Columbus are helped—prior outcomes may already have them through.

Who is right: FIFA or MLS? As hard as this it admit (and surprising as this is to believe), our international brethren occupy the moral high ground. That said, bad news for a few teams is good news for most fans, though, as the cascade of matches to close out the season should make for great play and even greater shuffling of the standings.