by Jeff Dieffenbach

Just under six months from now, thirty-two national soccer teams will vie for the right to call themselves world champions until 2006. With such a high honor at stake, one might expect to see the world’s best thirty-two sides. One would be incorrect.

Qualifying for the 2002 World Cup is complete and the draw is set. Of those teams occupying the top thirty-two spots in the most recent FIFA World Ranking, a full nine will be watching from home. Notable omissions include Colombia (ranked 5th), The Netherlands (8th), Yugoslavia (12th), and the Czech Republic (13th).

In 1998, the Czech Republic (3rd), Russia (12th), and Sweden (18th) topped a group of seven to miss the cut. In 1994, Denmark (6th), France (15th), Uruguay (17th), and Czechoslovakia (19th) led another unfortunate seven.

What went wrong? Does a secret organization conspire to keep the Czechs on the sideline? Do these teams choke in the clutch? Are they failing to perform?

Certainly, a well-timed goal or two in qualifying might have transported any of these fine sides to the finals. A closer examination shows that Colombia, which finished CONMEBOL qualifying in 2001 with a 7-6-5 W-L-T record and a +5 goal differential (GF 20, GA15, +5), needed only to net one additional chance to slip in ahead of Uruguay.

Likewise, a single goal would have put through the other three teams, each failing to make it out of 2001 UEFA qualifying: Netherlands (5-2-2, GF/GA 26:9, +17), Yugoslavia (4-4-1, 16:6, +10), and Czech Republic (5-2-2, 14:8, +6).

The real problem, though, isn’t the lack of production at key moments. No, what keeps top sides at home every four years is a disproportionate allocation of tournament slots.

Consider Europe. Fourteen of the thirty-two teams in the 2002 tournament qualified from UEFA. Seems like a lot? Based on FIFA World Ranking, nineteen (!) should have made the grade. Sorry, Netherlands, Yugoslavia, and the Czech Republic. And two more of your rivals.

If Europe gets the raw end of the deal, who makes out? CONMEBOL (South America)? No, they fill 6 slots while having only five in the top thirty-two, so only a slight gift there. Had World Cup slots equaled top thirty-two rankings, not only would Colombia not have qualified, but Uruguay would have lost their spot as well.

CONCACAF (North and Central America)? They live with only three spots in the tournament despite five in the top thirty-two. Like Europe, the short end of the stick.

Point the finger at AFC (Asia) and CAF (Africa). AFC qualified four (including the two host nations) against two in the top thirty-two. The prime culprit, though, was CAF, taking five teams, including Senegal with a rank of 67th, to the tournament despite only one (Tunisia) among the top thirty-two.

In particular, The Netherlands, Yugoslavia, the Czech Republic, and others from UEFA and CONCACAF (e.g., Honduras) relegated to watching next summer’s festivities on television are not bad teams, just caught in a bad system.

The remedy? Tie the number of slots per region more closely to the FIFA World Rankings. That is not to say that the rankings are perfect, nor that the best teams will make it out of qualifying, just that soccer strength will be rewarded. A stage like the World Cup demands the best actors.