by Jeff Dieffenbach

As fans of the beautiful game, we all know the truism frequently reminded us by commentators: a two-goal lead in soccer is the most dangerous lead in all of sports. As truisms go, this one comes up distinctly false.

In MLS matches through May 26, two-goal leads occurred 25 times. The lead holder lost exactly 1 time (a 96% win rate). Only the relatively rare three-goal lead fared better, giving rise to a win 4 times out of 4.

No, the most dangerous lead must clearly be the one-goal lead, and not just because two-goal leads can only disappear by first becoming one-goal leads. As noted above, two-goal leads in general hold.

Of the 44 game opening goals, 27 led to eventual wins (61%), 10 to draws, and 7 to losses. In some of these cases, the early lead was lost. For all 59 one-goal leads happening at any point in the games (not just to open them), “only” 36 (again, 61%) held.

Not only was the two-goal lead far from dangerous, the 2-0 win was in fact the most common in MLS this year, occurring 12 times. By comparison, 1-0 wins happened only 5 times, versus 9 for 1-1 draws.

Perhaps our commentators base their observations on the international game. After all, American soccer hardly serves as a reliable measuring stick, right?

At the 1998 World Cup in France, two-goal leads carried the day 15 times out of 16 (94%), as compared to 29 out of 48 (60%) for one-goal leads. All 12 three-goal leads held.

France saw only 3 2-0 wins, but 12 more times teams won after leading 2-0, often in higher scoring shutouts. In contrast, 11 1-0 wins slightly outnumbered 8 1-1 ties. (Note: analysis of World Cup matches considered only halftime and final scores, compared with a more detailed goal-by-goal accounting for MLS.)

Well, then, perhaps the “modern” game flies in the face of past convention, suggesting that our fearless commentators need only change their thinking, not retract it.

World Cup, Brazil, 1950. Two-goal leads prevailed 13 times out of 13 (for the commentators, 100%). One-goal leads performed nearly as well, holding form 15 times out of 16 (94%). As in 1998, all three-goal leads held up, in this case 7 for 7. In Brazil, 4 2-0 wins and 8 more after 2-0 leads outnumbered only 2 1-0 wins and no 1-1 ties.

Across the ocean and across the decades, the two-goal lead, far from being dangerous,  consistently foretells victory. Set analysis side for perhaps the greatest proof. Ask any player or coach their preference: start even, or up two?